Recession.............how long before its official ???

Alice R.

Alice R.

Boy Racer
In the last week...................

3 major companies announcing significant job cuts
Postal strike on the cards
Rail strike on the cards

Historically the stock market is well overdue for a fall, and as for the housing market...............if you had thrown a dice 14 times and got a six every throw, which way would you bet for the next throw ?

Its taken longer than i expected, but i truely believe we are in for one hell of a correction, and the longer it is in coming, the harder and longer it will be.

Anyone share my view ?
 
I mentioned in a post a few days ago about too many supercars, that this is usually a barometer, and the omens are not good.
I have been negative for a few years, but things have kept going - but I am sure it is smoke and mirrors.
Something is going to happen. The issue is when and how severe it will be.
It always seems to be a surprise and predictions are always hard about who/what will be affected.
I could type more, but have some work to do.
 
i agree with you and have seen it coming since Christmas.

a few contacts in the city have expressed similar views

everyone I know is throttling back so my advice is if you have an expensive house or shares now is the time to liquidate those assets

I find myself with zero debt living in a small flat - but I still have my cars and have just landed a good, secure job so as far as i see it am sitting pretty

latest rumour is snap election in the Autumn - if GB leaves it any later then there is now way they will get voted back in!!

there may be trouble ahead....
 
I have been saying we are moments away from a BIG recession for a year now (so that show what I know !)

But I do think it is starting to happen now

Been getting things in order over the last year reducing business gearing as much as posible and eliminating all personal debt

One thing is for sure ......... when it does happen it's gong to be a lot deeper than any recession we have seen before down to the levels of personal debt so many people have
 
Im in rented accomodation and sold off all properties in the last year...........everyone i know but also respect in business, bigger and smaller then myself, is doing the same.

You can almost smell disaster in the air .
 
FFS guys - enough of the doom merchants spout this stuff of course it will happen - it is a self fulfilling prophercy!:wall

P
 
De-leveraging property is very sensible ahead of any potential downturn, however exiting an asset class completely is quite risky, given that picking the timing of any peak is virtually impossible. It is now 6 years since the first headlines of 'house price crash' were printed and anyone who liquidated has done poorly, especially if it was their primary residence. It is a natural position to own one property to use, so whilst selling or de-leveraging other properties can be a well considered exercise in risk reduction, liquidating your main residence is a very speculative move. The so-called 'sell-to-rent' move is tax inefficient (as main residence is CGT free whereas other investments are not), bears huge frictional costs (stamp and legals and fees easily reach 8%) and is a very hard call in terms of timing.

One thing that has been true in the past is that the longer the period of prosperity the longer and deeper the following recession. We have just had the longest period of prosperity in history and many people investing in these markets have no knowledge or recollection of what a downturn is and are acting as if markets only ever go up.
 
Well I'm not at al worried about owning lots properties one bit - As long as I don't have to sell them there value is of no consequence whatsoever

They would be the last sector I would get out of even if you told me a recession was due a week Monday !

Land is the best asset to have as a safe bet and residential property comes a close second, commercial property would scare me though as if businesss start going pop there will be no tenants for them

It's debt you need to get rid of if interest rates start to spiral out of control
 
Very Interesting..

I think one is due, but mainly because it's overdue.
Recession as it's labelled, should not occur in this modern day and age.
With the exception of major conflict/disaster, there should be enough balance, within the global economy to keep things ticking along.

The emerging markets in the far east and Russia have certainly helped over the last five years.

imo
 
They stopped making land a long time ago i will grant you that, but, an asset is only an asset the split second before you realise its value, up until that point it is a liability.
Property prices over 30 years you cant really loose, but the next 10 ????
 
Alice R. said:
Property prices over 30 years you cant really loose, but the next 10 ????
Click to expand...

Take any 10 year period in history and property prices have risen almost without exception - can't see any reason why that shouldn't continue

I'm not to bothered if it doesn't as I'm not selling ! - all I need is plenty of tennants in the market and if houses are reposesed as they are in most recessions then demand for rental will get stronger

Land is the safest bet though and that's were the bulk of my investments are - I'm not alone, most pension companies, investment trusts etc all have a proportion of land in there portfolio for just this reason
 
So, if the housing market goes pear shaped - does that mean EVERYTHING in the economy in ALL sectors does? :confused:

I didnt really follow the last 'recession' as it didnt really effect my paperound earnings!

The IT / Telecoms sector went into massive nosedive in late 2000 till mid/late 2003, it was bloomin awful (anyone in the IT sector would vouch for this) - the worst it had ever been in fact. Since late 03 its been on the up - but during the glitch years the rest of the economy seemed propped up and not effected. So, does this mean the IT sector will nosedive yet again...just 4/5 years later ? :confused:
 
I think the IT market will take another hit, Steve. It took about 3 years or so to come back up, and it's been good now about that same period (3 - 4 years). I reckon we're approaching the downward side of the crest now, and I think there'll be some more rough times on the way, although not as bad as the last time.

At the end of 2003, I was expecting it all to start going pear-shaped the last half of 2007, but that guess appears to have been a bit premature with the pessimism.
 
agree recession is on the way and prices are gonna dip.

personally I would not sell any of my property as it was all bought at the right time and can stand empty for all I care....

I'm posied ready to snap-up a few places when the dip bites the hardest and when rates get up to double figures (rate shot-up to 14.5% when I took on my initial mortgage !! - read it and weep!)

Its already started - I offered £109k for a property on sale at £115k in March - the agent rang me yesterday - would I still pay £109k ? - said no and offered 104k - waiting to hear back - its deffo on the way........
 
I just cashed in pretty much all my shares today and second house is going on the market. Time to be cash rich I think.
 
I wasn't really around for the last one - did it have a knock on effect on s/h car prices or did people just stop buying new?
 
So Poo said:
I wasn't really around for the last one - did it have a knock on effect on s/h car prices or did people just stop buying new?
Click to expand...

Wasn't in business, still at school IIRC !

Car wise it dropped like a stone, especially the classics which were silly money at one point - A guy I know who trades classics lost a fortune - he's only just back on track now

The first things to get hit are toys and leisure - ask your self if you were struggling to meet the weekly bills what would be the first things to get cut out of your lifestyle ?

Sports cars, Gym membership, holidays, horses, eating out, fashion and gadgets - all stuff we can life without if we HAVE to :(

I wouldn't want to be over exposed in any of the above areas business wise but I'm quite happy with property
 
The IT market dropped because of the dotcom bubble bursting, which led to an implosion within a single market. People were predicting a downturn in the housing market 5 years ago and what happened ? - nothing. I think it's a bit premature to talk of a recession because the fact is the world has changed so much in the last 10 years with globalisation which helps stabilise stronger economies such as the UKs.

People should be more worried by change than recession these days as that is what will break more business than any downturn. By change I mean technology. I think there are loads of businesses about which have no reason to exist and won't for too much longer because of the effect the Internet will continue to have on how people manage services. Estate Agents , for example - wtf are 75% of them still doing existing when you have all single .com companies which are advertising houses countrywide from a single office/portal ?

James.
 
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